Thursday 20 May 2010

Coming soon ... Enhanced Bailout ..?

The recent global financial crisis and related euro/Greek crisis have proven a goldmine for thinking about high discount rate behaviour, moral hazard, time inconsistency and the importance of credibility for policy effectiveness. Now comes Obama's pledge to end bank bailouts 'once and for all.' Whether or not this is a good idea, is it a credible threat? Can the U.S. government pull it off? Could the EU pull it off? If it becomes U.S. law personally I actually think it might be a fairly strong and reasonably credible threat (hence all the banks' jitters at the thought!), at least over the medium term, but perhaps I am naively confident of my own government (question: what is required for credibility: that in fact they will hold steady, or that people simply believe they will hold steady...). What about the UK and EU? Would similar threats be credible from them? How does the heterogeneous credibility shape the international financial and economic landscape?

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